Surveyors' twelve-month sales expectations have fallen to their lowest point since July 2023, according to the RICS survey published on 12 November 2026. When the profession that values homes turns this cautious, the gap between an agreed price and a lender's figure widens. For buyers and sellers, that makes a down valuation in Kingston upon Thames a live risk on any sale agreed this winter.
Key Takeaways
- The RICS UK Residential Market Survey for October 2026 shows falling enquiries, falling agreed sales and weaker price expectations.
- A down-valuation happens when the lender's valuer puts a lower figure on the property than the agreed price.
- Thin comparable evidence in a slow market is the main driver. A valuer must rely on completed sales, not asking prices.
- A down-valuation can be challenged with better evidence, but only on evidence.
- Where a valuation is disputed in court, independent expert valuers decide the question.
The hook: what RICS reported
The headline net balances from the October 2026 survey were:
RICS said the twelve-month price balance implies a modest fall of around 1%. Tarrant Parsons, RICS Head of Market Research and Analysis, said:
"Home buyer demand remains subdued, and respondents are bracing for a weaker year ahead"
That is the market background. The rest of this article is about what it does to valuations.
Why a slow market produces more down-valuations
A mortgage valuation is an opinion of market value on the valuation date, prepared for the lender under the RICS Red Book. The valuer is not checking whether the buyer has paid a fair price. The valuer is telling the lender what the security is worth.
Three things happen when sales slow:
- Fewer comparables. With agreed sales falling, there are fewer recent completed sales of similar homes nearby. The valuer has less to work with.
- Older comparables. Evidence from six months ago may reflect a stronger market. A valuer will adjust it down.
- Agreed prices lag. A sale agreed in early autumn on the strength of spring evidence may meet a valuer looking at November sentiment.
The result is a valuation below the agreed price, and a lender that will only lend against the lower figure.
How a down valuation in Kingston upon Thames plays out
Kingston's housing stock is varied, and variety makes comparison harder.
- Victorian terraces in Norbiton and central Kingston. Extended and unextended houses on the same street can differ widely. A valuer must adjust for a loft conversion or rear extension, and will check it has the right approvals.
- Flats in Surbiton and by the river. Lease length, service charge and ground rent all affect value. A short lease or a rising ground rent is a common reason for a lower figure.
- Larger houses on the Coombe estate. Few sales and highly individual homes mean a wide range of reasonable opinion.
- Homes with building concerns. Movement, damp or flat roof defects noted on inspection can lead to a reduced value or a retention.
How to challenge a down-valuation
A lender will not change a valuation because the buyer or agent disagrees with it. It may change it if shown evidence the valuer did not have.
Step 1: get the reasons. Ask the lender or broker for the valuation report or at least the comparables used.
Step 2: assemble better evidence. Three or more completed sales, as close as possible in date, distance, size and condition. Sold prices, not asking prices. Evidence of recent works with approvals.
Step 3: use the lender's appeal route. Most lenders have a process, often through the broker. It usually allows one attempt.
Step 4: consider an independent Red Book valuation. A report from a RICS Registered Valuer gives a reasoned second opinion. It will not bind the lender, but it supports a challenge, a renegotiation or an application to a different lender.
Step 5: renegotiate or bridge the gap. If the lower figure holds, the choices are a price reduction, a larger deposit, a split of the difference, or a new lender.
In a chain, one down-valuation can unsettle every link. Sharing the valuation evidence early gives the other parties a reason to move.
Other valuations where disputes arise
Mortgage valuations are not the only ones contested in a falling market.
- Probate valuations fixed at the date of death may be questioned by HMRC or by beneficiaries.
- Matrimonial valuations decide how the family home is divided.
- Lease extension valuations set the premium between leaseholder and freeholder.
In each, the valuation date matters. A valuer must value at the date required, not with hindsight.
Expert evidence: how valuation disputes are decided
Valuation is an opinion, and two competent valuers can differ. The law recognises this.
In a professional negligence claim against a valuer, the court usually asks whether the figure fell outside the range of values that a reasonably competent valuer could have reached. If it sits within that range, the claim is likely to fail even if the figure later looks wrong.
The court cannot answer that question itself. It relies on independent expert valuers under CPR Part 35, who give evidence on:
- What the correct valuation was on the valuation date.
- What the acceptable range was for that type of property.
- Whether the valuer's method and comparables were sound.
An expert's duty is to the court, not to the party who instructed them. The RICS expert witness standard, whose 5th edition takes effect on 30 November 2026, requires the expert to set out assumptions and alternative conclusions.
For matrimonial, probate and lease extension disputes, the court or the parties often appoint a single joint expert: one valuer, instructed by both sides, whose report both can question in writing. It is quicker and cheaper than two experts, and suits most residential valuation disputes.
What this means for Kingston buyers and sellers
- Buyers: build a file of sold comparables before offering, and ask the agent to justify the price with completed sales.
- Sellers: price from evidence. Keep approvals and guarantees for works ready for the valuer.
- Both: if a down-valuation arrives, respond within days with evidence, not argument.
- Solicitors: where value is in dispute, propose a single joint expert early.
Frequently Asked Questions
Can a seller challenge the buyer's mortgage valuation?
Not directly. The valuation belongs to the lender. The seller can supply comparable evidence to the buyer or broker to support an appeal.
Is a down-valuation the same as a bad survey?
No. A valuation is an opinion of value for the lender. A RICS Level 2 or Level 3 survey reports on condition for the buyer.
Will an independent valuation make the lender change its figure?
Not automatically. It is evidence. Lenders are more likely to move when shown comparables their valuer did not consider.
Can a valuer be sued for a down-valuation?
A claim would need to show the figure fell outside the range a competent valuer could reach, and that loss followed. That is decided on expert evidence.
Conclusion
A weaker outlook from RICS does not mean every sale will be down-valued, but it does mean valuers will lean on hard evidence and discount optimism. The answer for buyers and sellers is the same: evidence first, and independent advice where the figures are far apart.
Kingston Surveyors provides independent RICS Red Book valuations across Kingston upon Thames, Surbiton, New Malden and Hampton Wick, and acts as expert witness and single joint expert in valuation disputes.
